The truth is, meteorologists are a lot more accurate than given credit. Sometimes the accuracy of a forecast can come down to the perception of the forecast.
Most days, people rarely complain if the temperature or wind forecast was off just a bit. But with rain and snow Think of it this way: The forecast calls for a chance of rain today. A chance of rain tomorrow means just that: there is a chance. Some days the odds are higher than others; some days the odds are lower.
Sometimes the odds are higher at one location and lower at another. Take, for instance, a day with a "30 percent chance of rain. That's tough to explain on TV, let alone show in a simple TV 7-day graphic. But it's possible that a majority of the people stay dry and a small percentage see rain. One small change in a single variable can lead to large changes in the forecast hours down the road. If a storm changes track, even by miles, that can be the difference from two inches of snow versus seven inches of snow.
On top of that, snow is an interesting beast. Just a small change in the moisture available in the atmosphere say a tenth of an inch versus half of an inch can be the difference between an inch of snow and five inches of snow. Here is an example: in general, one inch of rain equals about 10 inches of snow. Have you ever woken up to a sunny forecast only to get soaked on your way to the office? On days like that it's easy to blame the weatherman. Atmospheric internal waves are waves that propagate between layers of low-density and high-density air.
Although hard to describe, almost everyone has seen or felt these waves. Cloud patterns made up of repeating lines are the result of internal waves, and airplane turbulence happens when internal waves run into each other and break.
One such example may have happened in , when Utah meteorologists predicted an enormous winter storm prior to Thanksgiving. Because forecasters look into the future and the past, errors occur.
Sometimes the weather forecasts are wrong because the meteorologist has worked at the one location too long. He or she does not believe what the weather service officials say because the specific kind of weather has never happened there. On the other hand, it could be a new forecaster who does not know the weather patterns and so follows the computer model instead of stepping outside and actually feeling the weather.
Sometimes they rely too much on technology and not enough on reality. Computer models help, and they are a tool but they are not infallible. Often they are fallible. Even with skilled forecasters at the helm, certain situations can make accurate forecasts even more difficult. That's what's been causing the big storms we've been seeing in eastern Australia recently — the ones that have been bringing record hai l and even tornadoes.
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